Analysis of attacks on politicians in Europe and the USA since 1960
On July 13, 2024, former US President Donald Trump, the likely Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential election, was shot at a campaign event in Pennsylvania in the upper part of his right ear – an attack that put the democratic values of the country to the test.
Over the last six decades, both Europe and the United States have experienced numerous assassination attempts and attacks on heads of state and government – driven by ideological, political, or personal motives.
Understanding these developments is crucial for improving security measures and maintaining the integrity of democratic systems. Scavenger AI conducted an analysis to determine how many heads of state (presidents or prime ministers) have been targeted by assassination attempts since 1960.
Europe
Political violence in Europe has often been influenced by separatist movements and ideological extremism. Among the most notable cases are the assassination of Spanish Prime Minister Luis Carrero Blanco in 1973, the murder of British MP Jo Cox in 2016, and the assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
The graph below shows a significant increase in overall figures in the 1990s and 2000s, followed by a decline in the 2010s and a renewed increase in the 2020s.
USA
Among the most well-known incidents are the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963, the assassination of Senator Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, and the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan in 1981.
In the 2020s, threats have once again increased – including the attempted kidnapping of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (2020), the storming of the Capitol (2021), and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on July 13, 2024.
To ensure comparability, Scavenger AI has only collected data on assassinations and assassination attempts on presidents. Following a peak in the 1960s and 1970s, current figures are at a similar level to those of past decades.
Conclusion
In summary, the absolute number of attacks and assassination attempts on heads of state and government in Europe is higher than in the United States. However, it must be taken into account that there are significantly more heads of state and government in Europe.
With numerous presidents and prime ministers in different countries, the higher figures mainly reflect the greater political diversity – and not a higher level of risk.
Moreover, the available data do not show a clear increase in such incidents over the decades. The perceived discrepancy should therefore be considered in the context of the different political structures – not as an indication of an increase in threats, but as an expression of structural differences between Europe and the USA.